Is current up-move(correction) over?
Channel resistance line, Indicators suggest that we are near next wave down.
- Divergence (MACD, RSI) in Daily
- Daily RSI in reversal zone (62-67 level). Same in Hourly
- Divergence in Hourly
- Near all time high(resistance line)
- Near Channel resistance line (hourly)
- Last 2 days support at 10130-31. This will be 1st support to watch for
Nifty is taking support in trend-line. Hoping to break it soon.
In Hourly, seems we have completed wave X and next down wave a-b-c to follow
Finally much awaited correction triggered off this week. In a weeks time, Nifty corrected 20% of this years rally.
Its too early to say which form of correction may happen like – Flat, Zigzag, Triangle or combination (complex correction). Soon we should have clarity on this.
Nifty took support on Trend line drawn from Feb 2017. Break of this like should take nifty to next support zone, which is at around 9500. Hoping that this Trend Line will give support for some time.
In Hourly chart, I have put both main and alternate count.
Main count is that its moving in 5 wave and alternate as 3 wave.
we see that wave (iii)/c has completed 2.62 length of wave (i)/a – A perfect Fibonacci expansion level. Normally with such expansion, we should see more followup on downside (as my main count).
If its moving in 5 wave, then wave (iv) should complete in 9800-9840 range else possible that, last Friday’s low, Nifty has completed a-b-c pattern and next move will retrace much of current fall.
Also, below I have updated my long term view on price/time
Really surprised by Nifty movement. Going very strong.
Try to be with trend. I have labeled my view
Today I am changing some of my short term views on Nifty..
- I think whole of June month was a correction. Below you can see that in Daily chart, Long term trend-line is broken. Hence we are now in 3 month correction which started in June. I am going back to view which was referred on my 23rd May blog… https://niftytechblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/23/nifty-23-05-2017/
- Current upmove(wave 3) was in 3 wave form and not 5 wave as I was referring earlier. I just checked my wave 1 count and see that it was referred as 3 wave upmove. Hence wave 3 has to be 3 wave move and not 5. See daily chart https://niftytechblog.wordpress.com/2017/02/11/nifty-11-02-2017/
Having said this, below is my chart update. Also I am sharing my projections as per Elliott wave for this upmove (wave (4) and (5)). Below is rough estimate of move I am expecting in coming weeks.
Below is Daily chart as per new projection
Other updated charts
As said on 10th June, I was not convinced that wave (iv) was complete due to time factor for wave (iv) and (ii), Today time taken by wave (iv) is >= to wave (ii).
I can say that we should soon see wave (v)/iii up-move
Current State: As per my count,below is current numbering.
I am still not clear if wave (iv) is complete or not. Normally I like to see wave (iv) taking more time than wave (ii), which is not the case now. Wave (ii) took 5 days & wave (iv) 3.5 days. At the same time, some of my other indicators says wave (iv) might be complete.
Hence, Either wave (iv) is complete or may take another 1-2 days to complete.
Nifty going above 9689 can confirm that wave (iv) is complete and wave (v)/iii is in progress.